Larry Brilliant, an epidemiologist who spent his life eradicating smallpox, spoke in 2006 of the imminent emergence of an epidemic that would kill 100 million people.

Corona From A Medical Point Of View, Larry Brilliant is an epidemiologist who has worked for many years to eradicate smallpox. He never claims to be a prophet; But 14 years ago, at a conference at TED, he gave an interesting talk about a future epidemic that few could take seriously at the time.

In 2006, he spoke of one billion people in the world contracting a mysterious disease that would kill 165 million people. He said the disease would plunge the world into a recession and distress, and would cost the global economy a loss of $ 1 trillion to $ 3 trillion. 

Aside from the 100 million people who will die, many people will lose their jobs and the benefits of their health care system. He called the consequences unimaginable.

Now is the time, and Brilliant, chairman of the board of Ending Pandemics, plans to share his experiences and expertise with the community affected by the coronavirus . 

Although we are still a long way from the death toll of 100 million, according to Brilliant; But Corona has already devastated our world. 

Brilliant is now trying to refrain from refining his former prediction; However, he repeatedly warned of this impending danger not only in the form of writings and speeches; He even reminded the world as the technical advisor of the famous movie “Contagion “.

In addition to working with the World Health Organization to eradicate cholera, Brilliant has provided valuable services in the fight against other diseases such as influenza, polio, and blindness, and has at times led the nonprofit Google.org Foundation and co-founded Well Conferences. 

At the age of 75, Brilliant now lives in one of the six boroughs in San Francisco Bay Area. 

The following is a summary of an interview previously conducted with him by Wired magazine journalist Steven Levy .

^{Larry Brilliant was one of the first to warn of a dangerous pandemic at the 2006 TED conference.}

Steven Levy: I was present at your 2006 TED talk. At that time, your wish was to “help me stop the worlds.” But it seems that you did not get what you wanted; Isn’t that so?

Larry Brilliant: No. I never got what I wanted. This was while the systems I wanted were already in place and were being used. This is very ridiculous; Because we saw it in a movie.

• But now we are all watching this movie.

People say that the film is a prophecy. [While] what we watched was science. All members of the epidemiological community have warned the world over the past 10 to 15 years that the main question is not whether an epidemic like this can occur; Rather, the problem is only the time of its occurrence. 

It is very difficult to convince people. Even the commander of the National Security Group, who was solely responsible for defending the epidemic, was ousted by Trump. With his departure, all downstream staff and existing communications were lost. Even then, Trump cut funding for early warning for the rest of the world.

• I heard you used the term “novel” for this virus.

I did not mean a fake virus. This has nothing to do with the concept of the novel and the myth.

• So it got very bad!

I mean, this is a new virus, and there has never been a human being around the world who has ever been immune to it; This means that the virus can infect 8.7 billion of our siblings worldwide.

• Because this virus is new; We are still learning about it. Do you think that if someone gets it and then recovers, then that person will be immune?

Although this is a new virus, I have not come across anything that denies this (post-infection immunity). Of course, there have been cases where people thought they were infected again. But these cases are more like an error in a diagnostic test than a case of re-infection. The problem is that by the end of this epidemic, tens of millions and possibly hundreds of millions of us will probably be infected with the virus, and anything can happen in such large numbers. But it does not matter in terms of epidemiology or general health.

• Was this the worst case scenario you have ever seen?

This is one of the most dangerous epidemics of our lives.

• Today we are asked to do things we have never seen done in our lives. For example, staying at home, keeping a distance of two meters with others or refraining from attending group gatherings. Are these recommendations correct?

As you have already noticed, I pretended to be isolated for meditation; But the fact is that I am now living in a quasi-quarantine situation in the city of Martin. Yes, I think this is a very good advice. But did this good advice come from the US President during the first 12 weeks? No. Everything we were told was a bunch of lies. 

He described the spread of the disease as a propaganda ploy by Democrats and called it fake. Many people believed these words and it was to their detriment. As a public health official, I believe this was the most irresponsible move I have ever seen in my life as an elected official. 

But what you hear today about self-righteousness, school closures, and events is true. But will these measures fully protect us from disease? Or will they make our world safer forever?The answer is no . These measures are good because we want to expand the spread of the disease over time.

^{Larry Brilliant and his colleagues while working in the field in India}

• You are talking about chart leveling.

By slowing down or leveling it, we will not reduce the total number of cases; Instead, we will only postpone a large number of cases until we can access a vaccine, which we will of course succeed in; Because I do not see anything in virology that can convince me that we will not be able to get a vaccine between 12 and 18. Eventually we will be able to reach the “golden ring of epidemiology”.

• What is this golden ring?

This means that either according to the first scenario, a significant number of us will get the disease and will be immune to it, or according to the second scenario, we will get the vaccine. The combination of these two scenarios will be enough to create a collective immunity, which will be equivalent to 70 or 80% of the population.

I still hope we can find an antiviral drug for Covid 19 that also has preventative properties. What I am saying is unproven and quite controversial, and certainly many people will oppose it; But I cite two articles in 2005, one published in the journal Nature and the other in Science. 

They did a mathematical modeling of the flu to see if a drug saturation called Tamiflu could prevent the spread of the flu in an area with a flu outbreak. Both studies showed positive results. 

As a witness, I can get HIV / AIDSLet me point out that it was once considered incurable and deadly for us. But several leading scientists have discovered antiviral drugs, and we have learned that some of these drugs can be prescribed before infection and for prevention.

 As scientists focus on curbing Covid 19, we will focus all our knowledge, money and resources on finding antiviral drugs with preventative capabilities so that we can use them alongside vaccines.

• When can we get out of the house and go to work?

If we assume this situation to be similar to a tennis match, I think the virus has already overtaken us. But today there is great news from South Korea; Because they now have less than 100 cases. In China, the number of cases caused by foreign travelers is currently higher than the number caused by the outbreak in Wuhan. It will be very difficult for us to follow the Chinese model. We do not want to lock people in their apartments and take food for them. But following the South Korean model could be a good option. But unfortunately doing it requires a proportionate number of experiments; They tested 250,000 people. In fact, when South Korea completed 200,000 tests, we had only less than 1,000 tests.

• Now that we have missed the opportunity for early experiments, is it too late to do these experiments?

Definitely not. Doing the test can make a noticeable difference. We need to run a random sampling process in the country to find out where the virus really is. Because we do not know anything right now. Perhaps the reason that no case of infection has been reported in Mississippi is that we have not been there for such a thing. How do they know? Zimbabwe also reported zero cases; But not because the virus is not there; But because they do not have the ability to perform experiments. We need a test tool like a pregnancy test kit that anyone can do at home.

• If you were president, what would you say in your daily briefing?

I began my press conference by saying, “Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to Ron Klein (nicknamed Caesar Ebola during the presidency of Barack Obama). I summoned him again today and nicknamed him Caesar Covid. “Everything will be run by one person who has a place in both the public health community and the political community.” We are now living in a fragmented country. Currently, Tony Fauci  (President of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) is the closest person we have access to.

^{Larry Brilliant spent many years of his life eradicating one of the world’s most dreaded smallpox epidemics}

• Are you scared yourself?

I am in a certain age group in which the chance of death will be one in seven if I get the disease. If you are not worried, it means that you are not paying enough attention. But I’m not terrified. I strongly believe that the steps we are taking will increase the time it takes to complete the cycle of infection in the community. In my opinion, these measures will ultimately give us a chance to get access to a vaccine or prophylactic drug to stop or slow the spread of the disease. Everyone should know that what we are facing is not a zombie apocalypse or mass extinction.

• Should we use a mask?

It is great to use the N95 mask. The holes in the mask are only three microns in size and the virus is only one micron in size. So many people say that using these masks will not be useful. But imagine that the three great football teams are supposed to enter through only one door at a time; Obviously, they do not succeed. In the latest data I have seen, this mask has been able to provide 5 times protection against viruses. this is very good. But we need to keep hospitals afloat and keep health professionals safe in our jobs. Therefore, masks should be used in the places where they are most needed; That is, caring for patients.

• How do we know we are on the path to success?

Until these three things happen, the world will not return to normal: First, we need to find out if the virus is distributed in the form of an iceberg that can only be seen one-seventh out of its water, or if it looks like a pyramid that we see all over. If we now see only one-seventh of the reality of the disease due to a lack of test equipment, then a lot of damage awaits us. In the second stage , we have to find a treatment for it, such as a vaccine or antiviral drug, and in the third stageMost importantly, make sure the safety of large sections of the population (especially nurses, public health professionals, doctors, police personnel, firefighters, and teachers) and test them to make sure they are no longer infected. We will need a system to identify this group of people, something like a bracelet or an image stamped with an image. In such a situation, we can send our children to school with peace of mind; Because we know teachers are not infected.

Instead of saying that there is no right to see anyone in a nursing home, we should have groups of people who have the authority to take care of the elderly and vulnerable. Nurses should be able to return to work in hospitals, and dentists should be able to open your mouth without the risk of transmitting the virus to you. When these three steps occur, it can be said that normal conditions will return.

• Are there any clearer aspects to this issue?

Well, I’m a scientist and I’m a religious person. I can not look at things without the view that there is no superior power with which we can perform better. I think we see a concept equivalent to empty streets in the civil arena. However, the level of civic participation is now higher than I have ever seen. I now see children and young people of the third millennium volunteering to buy items needed by the elderly and people in Corinth. I see an unprecedented wave of heroic nurses coming in and working far beyond their usual working hours. We see doctors who come to the hospital fearlessly to work. I have never seen this amount of volunteering in the past.

I do not want to pretend that this is a situation worth experiencing for us. This is a very unexpected and difficult situation that will challenge us. Perhaps, as in the aftermath of World War II, we may go through this situation again to reconsider the factors that led the country into this rift. This virus is a factor for equal opportunities and may show us a way that is better for us; A way to rely more on our commonalities than on our differences.