Welcome To The Second Part Of The Series “Life In 2050“. In The First Part Of This Series, We Looked At Potential Advances In Robotics, Cybernetics, Biotechnology, Quantum Processing, And Automated Systems, And Talked About How They Would Transform Future Wars.
Life In 2050, The second part will discuss how technological, political, social, and environmental changes will shape the future economy.
Just like the dimensions and shapes of future battlefields, it is difficult to predict how the world of exchanges, commerce, and global policing will go by 2050. After all, we are talking about issues that directly affect humans, and wherever humans are present, chaos ensues!
However, we have to wait for some significant changes that cannot be questioned, and economists are also preparing themselves for a new era.
These changes occurred without any specific order in these areas:
- Population growth (mainly in urban centers)
- Economic growth and non-Western markets
- New technologies, industries, and jobs
- Extensive changes in temperature, climate patterns, and water scarcity
- Renewable and sustainable energies
The bottom line is that future economies are driven simultaneously by the two elements of “abundance” and “rarity”: more people must be satisfied with fewer resources.
Although this challenge can lead to uncertainty and turmoil, it will also be a platform for developing optimal solutions.
According to the United Nations Department of Economic Affairs and Social Relations in 2019 – a report called “Global Population Outlook 2019” – our planet’s population is expected to reach 9.74 billion by the middle of this century.
However, these 2 billion extra people will not be distributed equally in different countries than the current world population.
While Asian countries have played a major role in increasing the world’s population since the mid-twentieth century, this trend has declined since the beginning of the 21st century. By 2030, Asia’s population growth will be steady, and by 2050, about 5 billion people will live on the continent.
By 2030, Asia’s population growth will be steady, and by 2050, about 5 billion people will live on the continent.
From then on, Africa will be the only continent to experience significant population growth. Africa currently has a population of 1.36 billion and is expected to grow by about 83% to 2.5 billion by the middle of this century.
In any case, by 2050, Asia will be the most populous continent in the world, hosting a total of 5.29 billion people.
Africa is set to be the second most populous continent in the world, with 2.49 billion people. Latin America and the Caribbean are in third place with 710 million people. Europe is in fourth place with 705 million people, North America is in fifth place with 430 million people, and Ocean is in sixth place with 60 million people.
The main factors that inherently lead to population growth are economic, social, and technological.
One of the most important aspects of population growth in the current century is where growth occurs. About 56% of the world’s population lives in urban rather than rural areas, equivalent to about 4.4 billion people.
By 2050, the urban population will increase to 6.6 billion, meaning that 68 percent will live in these transit centers.
This puts more stress on the ecosystems that are already under stress due to large cities. The expansion of cities means that more land must be cleared for infrastructure development. More water must flow from treatment plants. We will need to generate more electricity, and more agricultural land must be considered.
As the urban population grows faster than the rural population, not only will we have fewer farmers, but agricultural land will also shrink.
As the urban population grows faster than the rural population, not only will we have fewer farmers, but agricultural land will also shrink. Given the impact that climate change will have on the planet, we need to fill more openings in 2050.
At the same time, the resources required for this work will be less than before.
But the problem goes beyond food production. While every child born today until 2050 is another hungry mouth, a human being needs shelter, equipment, health facilities, medical facilities, education, and employment.
When these needs are not met, we will eventually have to wait for increased crime, terrorism, and humanitarian crises.
Fortunately, humanity is not necessarily doomed. Logic tells us that every new life is a mouthful of satiety, but at the same time, it has two hands and a brain to solve problems.
The same is true of urban environments, which, while damaging natural resources, also center for innovation and creative work.
Wealth (changing) nations
The global economic balance is expected to change significantly by 2050. Although this trend has already begun, it is expected that the process of change will accelerate over the next three decades.
According to Bloomberg News’ economic forecast for 2020, the economic stability of developed countries after World War II will end over time, and new superpowers will appear on the world stage.
In short, the center of gravity of the global economy will shift from the West to the East and from advanced economies to emerging markets.
The impact on world politics can already be felt, but it will become more pronounced in the coming decades. First of all, China will overtake the United States in terms of gross domestic product by 2035 and become the world’s largest economy.
After World War II, the economic stability of developed countries has ended over time, and new superpowers are emerging on the world stage.
By 2050, the Asian market share of the gross domestic product will reach more than 50%, mainly thanks to China and India. North America and Europe will each have a 20 percent share of the cake, and the rest of the world will have a 10 percent share.
From the perspective of the richest countries, the United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, India, Britain, Brazil, Italy, and Canada are now in the top 10.
But by 2050, the 10 richest countries in the world are expected to be China, the United States, India, Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Brazil, France, Britain, and Turkey.
For the first time since the “age of imperialism,” the richest countries in the world are not just European and American. Instead, the resulting wealth and political influence are more evenly distributed among the continents.
Out of the top 10 countries, other major economies will be outside of Europe and North America, including Argentina, Russia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Nigeria, Mexico, Poland, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Colombia. Egypt, Iran, the Netherlands, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand.
It is not a question of which country has the most wealth, and it is also a question of which countries will have the fastest economic growth.
But it is not just a question of which country has the most wealth. The question is which countries will have the fastest economic growth. Nigeria, Bangladesh, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Africa, Egypt, Malaysia, Colombia, Mexico, and Thailand are among the top candidates in GDP growth and per capita income by 2050.
Once again, markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America will drive all the change. Most of these changes will be due to digital technologies and widespread access to them, to the point that by 2050, all countries and individuals in the world will be able to connect to the Internet and online.
Internet is everything
According to the United Nations International Telecommunication Union in 2018, more than half of the world’s population now has access to the Internet.
By 2050, people’s Internet access is expected to reach 90 percent due to a combination of factors such as economic growth in the developed world, increased access to mobile devices, and access to broadband satellite services.
In addition to the people, more and more mobile devices, sensors, smart home appliances, and gadgets will be connected to the Internet by the middle of this century. In fact, thanks to small machine learning algorithms (TinyML), prediction algorithms, and other forms of neural software, any device can be “smart.”
Growth is based on data, and the most valuable human resource will be content.
We talked about technologies that mimic how humans process and learn information. Current research in human neuroscience can also lead to the widespread use of nerve implants. With devices like NoorLink, people can connect to computers and devices, access the Internet, do Internet banking, blogging, surfing the Internet, and producing content just by thinking.
These developments will accelerate the transition from physical economics to digital economics, in which case growth will be based on data, and the most valuable human resource will be content.
This will lead to the further growth of the Internet of Things (or IoT for short), and basically, the real world will be able to compare to the Internet. This has a profound effect on society and improves productivity.
In this regard, information security will be more important than ever because privacy will become an obsolete concept.
With cameras, sensors, and digital markers being found everywhere and developing sophisticated artificial intelligence systems that plow data to acquire patterns and habits, all individuals’ movements will be recorded and categorized in the cloud.
If outsiders can access this data, we could see new levels of identity theft, extortion, and online harassment shortly.
New industries and new jobs
The most prominent issue is how the acceleration of technological trends will lead to a change in people’s habits in jobs, social communication, shopping, and consumption.
Naturally, we have to wait for new jobs, emerging investment opportunities, and fundamental changes in how people “work.” In this area, we will see 5 general trends that figure out the changes:
Automation systems continue to improve, leading to a dramatic increase in optimization, but the cost of doing so will be losing some jobs. Automation systems include robots and software, and machine learning, and we will no longer need human analysis and monitoring.
More flexible tasks:
When automated systems handle more and more tasks in physical production, more business growth will be focused on content production and intellectual property. With wireless technology, people will work far more from home and remote locations and set their own working hours.
Options for the poor and the rich:
In the developing world, many industrial jobs are disappearing due to robots and automation systems in production. This will accelerate a new trend, and emerging markets will have to adapt to an economy reliant and highly technological future. In this way, the problems related to “force adjustment” and the abundance of heads of developing countries.
Ciphers and Blockchains:
With the advent of the “industrial Internet,” we will see a power reduction, but at the same time, new opportunities are being offered to entrepreneurs. As more and more economic activities take on a completely online form, they also become more direct, peer-to-peer, and decentralized.
The trend toward decentralization is facilitated by using cryptocurrencies, interchangeable tokens (NFTs), and blockchains that distribute the two.
These technologies are doomed to abandon traditional banking and cash-based transactions and be programmed to manifest energy, resources, investment, and ownership.
Commercial aerospace industry:
By 2050, the aerospace industry will experience incredible growth, reaching a point worth several trillion dollars. The main pillars of this growth will be the sending of “satellite constellations” to provide Internet services, miniature satellites that will enable advanced research, and refueling services in Earth orbit.
As the cost of sending missiles decreases, space will become a more accessible point. By the middle of this century, we will see the formation of space tourism, space hotels, and even low-Earth habitats.
Commercial missions to the moon, lunar tourism, and even asteroid mining are likely to become a reality.
The possibility of reaching near-Earth asteroids and extracting their resources will lead to the availability of large quantities of precious metals and materials that make up the global economy.
Thus, we are expected to see the emergence of the world’s first billionaires, the decline in the price of precious metals (because they are no longer rare), and the formation of the construction industry in space.
A planet that leaves warm
Scientists have known for decades that the earth is getting warmer from the 19th century onwards. This trend is a direct result of the consumption of fossil fuels and the effects that humans have on the natural environment.
Because of these activities, we have seen an increase in greenhouse gas emissions – particularly carbon dioxide, which increases the solar radiation that our atmosphere absorbs.
According to a 2018 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming is expected to rise by 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2052.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments concluded that global warming should not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius and that this goal would be achieved by reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
An increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius means that we have to wait for warmer summers, more rainfall and disrupt the natural systems humans need to survive.
Although these figures do not seem so high, it should be noted that they are only the average increase in temperature and can include regional and annual variables.
An increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius means that we have to wait for warmer summers, more rainfall, more cases of unconventional weather, and disruption of natural systems that humans need to survive. Life In 2050
Rising temperatures will be particularly pronounced in the Northeast and Central America, Central, and Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa, Central, and Western Asia, as well as sub-Saharan Africa.
In areas closer to the poles (Canada, Russia, South Africa, and South America), the duration of the frost-free seasons will increase.
Precisely because of this, countries near the poles will see explosive growth in agricultural production.
At the same time, countries with more fresh and renewable water resources (Brazil, Russia, and Canada) will have to deal with more water demand, and if they fail to keep up with demand, they could face serious consequences. To be.
Rising temperatures near the equator will mean more rainfall in the winter, which means we have to wait for more floods, coastal storms, and floods.
During the summer, rising temperatures will lead to drought, desertification, and declining groundwater levels. Combining these extreme events will also mean soil erosion, inundation, and reduction of soil. Life In 2050
Similarly, densely populated areas formed near large shores and rivers that flow into the oceans are also experiencing rising sea levels. According to a new study, by 2040, about 7.4 billion square meters of land will be submerged.
The economic consequences will be far-reaching, given that important urban areas will have to deal with floods that get worse each year than the year before.
By 2040, about 7.4 billion square meters of land will be submerged
It is predicted that by the middle of this century, several large cities will lose or be completely abandoned due to rising tides, flooding of river systems or landslides (following groundwater extraction), or a large part of their population.
This means a new immigration or asylum crisis and a significant impact on global markets if financial centers are lost.
Another trend that has just begun is the loss of glaciers and polar ice caps. According to a study published in April 2020, the Sea-Ice Model Comparison Project (SIMIP) simulations show that the Northeast orbit will have completely ice-free summers by 2050.
The loss of frozen Arctic Ocean ice has a significant effect on the planet and ocean currents, causing open waters to absorb more heat. As a result, ocean temperatures rise, and methane reservoirs are released beneath the Arctic Ocean.
In many parts of the world, rapid industrialization and population growth have led to the depletion of water resources. In countries like China, Egypt, India, Pakistan, Mexico, and the United States, we have seen desperate measures and even international events.
With the added stress of climate change, freshwater is expected to become rarer by 2050. Life In 2050
So inevitably, we will see “water wars” in parts of the world, and neighboring countries will fight each other for access to limited freshwater resources – especially in areas where international river systems are found.
These rivers are essential for drinking water, irrigation, and sanitation wherever they flow, so when a country begins to dry up, no country will be willing to share them with its neighbors.
In recent years, we have seen the emergence of “blue futures trading,” which is now treated as a valuable material such as oil, precious metals, and stones.
Therefore, besides the significant effects on political geography and the environment, the scarcity of freshwater resources can also have consequences for financial markets.
On the positive side, the impact of climate change will lead to progress in production, energy, and transportation. First of all, renewable energy, electric vehicles, and other “green technologies” will become much more common due to lower costs, competitive pricing, and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In 2018, 28% of the world’s electricity came from renewable energy sources – a combination of hydroelectric (45%), atomic (28%), wind (13%), solar (6%), and biofuels (5%). ) And other methods (3%).
In the future, solar energy will account for a much larger share of renewable sources, accounting for 38% of electricity generation.
The share of wind energy will reach 34%, hydroelectric energy will reach 27%, and biofuels and other fuels will have the rest.
Meanwhile, China and India are expected to have the largest share in solar and wind energy production.
In the future, solar energy will account for a much larger share of renewables, accounting for 38% of electricity generation.
Hydroelectric energy is also distributed more evenly, with China (23%), the European Union (17%), Brazil (15%), and India (8%) having the largest share of the cake.
Renewable energy has already had a tremendous impact on developing countries. In other words, countries where access to centralized power grids is limited and infrastructure is unreliable. In these areas, portable solar lights, portable wind turbines, and appliances that use alternative energy sources can provide sustainable energy for small communities.
Due to the loss of arable land that has already begun, cities are becoming greener. They will host urban agriculture, vertical agriculture, submerged agriculture, hydroponics, community gardens, and buildings that integrate ecology and architecture into a single design…
The economy in 2050 will not bear the slightest resemblance to what we know today.
Cash and face-to-face banking are now being replaced by e-banking and e-commerce. By 2050, the way will be more open for distributed cryptocurrencies and nodes that are not regulated and are not controlled by any financial institution or central government.
Amid technological advances, population growth, wider connectivity, and the need to do more with fewer resources, it isn’t easy to discern the situation.
On the one hand, the world may sink deeper into environmental problems and resource scarcity, and any imaginable crises and challenges may arise.
On the other hand, renewable energy, declining carbon emissions, smart living, business space, and a greater focus on sustainability may bring humanity into a new era of “post-rare” economics.